A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
